Taiwan's options for survival
Not really a fair fight. |
Recently, China persuaded Panama to withdraw recognition of Taiwan as a country. Mainland China is increasingly isolating Taiwan economically and diplomatically, while simultaneously spending much more on military to increase its potential of a swift and low-casualty invasion of Taiwan. In this article, the author discusses how Taiwan is in a dangerous spot after the betrayal of Panama, and proposes that the best deterrence would be to increase military spending. Taiwan will be increasing its military spending to 3% of its GDP -- something that the author clearly approves of.
I can't say that I'm as much of an expert as the author, but given Taiwan's current economic struggles, I feel that it is wiser for the government to be spending on social services. The reason for this is because I don't believe Mainland China can attack Taiwan without severe political ramifications. This in-depth article about why China will not reunify with Taiwan by contains more information, but a TLDR would be that China would face a large denunciation from the international community if it attacked Taiwan. What is more worrisome to me isn't an outright declaration of war, but more if Taiwan had some kind of period of unrest (perhaps a Blue/Green severe political disagreement), and China used that as an excuse to send in troops to stabilize.
Taiwan has many options for what to do but very few viable ones. These options aren't all necessarily distinct (meaning some of them can be done in conjunction). I have listed them:
- Invade the Mainland and retake it, unifying China and Taiwan: Taiwan does not have the military strength to do this.
- Seek international allies who will pledge to defend Taiwan if it declares independence: the problem with this is that every country in the world seems to need to pander to China, including the Vatican. Even if Taiwan were to reach some kind of under-the-table deal with a country that it would protect Taiwan in case of war, that wouldn't be nearly as useful if Taiwan were to have other countries publicly declare their support as a deterrence for military intervention.
- Agree to "One country, two systems" : Hong Kong has already shown that this does not work very well, and once China is in control, there is no stopping them from using dirty salami tactics to slowly remove freedom. Reunifying with China (in its current political state) would be like marrying the person who has been threatening to abuse you if you don't marry them -- you already know from this that you will be abused regardless.
- Declare independence: it's very difficult to predict what Mainland China would do in this case. This option would be a pretty stupid option as even if Taiwan declared independence, it's unlikely that any other country in the world would recognize Taiwan as an independent country (they care too much about pandering to China), and would only give China reason to follow through with their promise to invade. I wrote above that I doubt a full-WW2 style military invasion will happen, but my guess is that China will tighten the noose and blockade Taiwan, choking off all imports and harming Taiwan economically.
- Continue the current status quo...and hope for the best: this option is most likely what will be done for the next decade. This option isn't ideal for many in the pro-Taiwan independence camp who want to be able to wave a Taiwanese/ROC flag at the Olympics or have a voice in the UN. But in the end, swallowing pride should be worth enjoying the liberties that living in Taiwan provides, free of CCP control. Also, I do believe that China's current government is unsustainable. It might be 1, 2, 3 or more decades, but there will be upheaval. And when that happens, who knows? Perhaps a reunification then would make sense.